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First of all - do not be alarmed to see the 100K plus whales disbursing.  Let me explain 

  • On Chain says they are moving from big bags like 100K + holdings to a few smaller holdings ie mostly some reorganization towards slightly smaller addresses.
  • However overall there is a lot of stacking pressure coming from addresses of all sizes. 
  • This stacking is making the accumulation score heat up. Wait till later for more on this. 
  • Historically the current range for the accumulation score has been supportive of Bitcoin's price but typically this does not lead to price explosions in the short term.
  • The small fish (addresses controlling less than 1 BTC) have been stacking sats pretty hard over the past three months. 
  • This may not fuel an extreme move yet but constant stacking shrinks supply.  
  • Every other group is just business as usual.
  • Collectively most cohorts are mostly pulling in the same direction. And that’s where the accumulation score come in. 

If most group of addresses are increasing the aggregate amount of coins they control we’d think this is a positive sign for the market. It tells us there is a widespread demand for coins.  We are now at 0.7 Accumulation score. 

  • The accumulation score takes values between 0 and 1.
  • 0 means that basically no group is accumulating coins.
  • 1 means that every group is accumulating coins.

Net takeaway - all is positive on the stacking side, it does not however mean we have an imminent explosion beyond $30K.  

But the odds of higher to 30K are greater than the odds of price falling to 25K based on my analysis of On Chain Data.


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Comments

Anonymous

1st 😁. Thx James

Anonymous

I’m nibbling and adding to my little stack. In a year this small price action will look tame.

Anonymous

It is good to see retail accumulating heavy

Anonymous

Ben Cowan is the Jim Cramer for crypto lol! Just do the opposite of everything he says.

Anonymous

Follow the money

Anonymous

The numbers must be skewed towards the smaller wallets. I know a number of people who own 1 or more BTC but never hold a full BTC on any one wallet.

Anonymous

Keep calm and stack on 😎

Anonymous

I'm glad you switched up the DCA crowd. I feel more positive energy with the current crew. I still watch NFA live to catch their perspectives. But I'm more bullish than bearish. As always, thanks for sharing what you find.

Anonymous

Let s go!

Anonymous

Be good to see you Ben and Rob on a DCA again. Same interest and different perspectives. I always enjoyed both of your perspectives and ways to form a position it was as a viewer healthy debate that you don't get on other channels.

Anonymous

I followed him when his channel was still new but found him to be way too conservative, pointing out every single possible scenario that MIGHT happen in the markets. He seems like scared money. I haven't watched his videos for at least 18 months now. I had enough.

Anonymous

The year is 2025, Ben C says cash is king and BTC going lower

Anonymous

Mr James! How you feel about idea of the video of “FIRE movement retirement” by 2030 or 2032 on basket 🧺 of BTC Tesla SOL and ETH for living and retire of 80K, 100K or 250K per year

Anonymous

Thanks James. On Lucky Dragon's note above regarding DCA participants, I second it. At first I thought having 4 commentators wouldn't work well, but turns out it works rather well! Having those different points of views is insightful. That guy Rob you had on in the early days offered little value. But he had his chance. The current 4 each offer their own alpha to the discussion. Nice work!

Anonymous

Let me summarize every Rob and Ben show.. Rob: Yeah, I don’t know could go either way. Ben: Bearish, lower. Alts bleed. Cash is king.

Anonymous

Ben! 👀 I've been stacking since '21 I've never sold any except for Celsius trading my deposits out from under me. I'm stacking slowly but surely. Every week.

Anonymous

I endorse a video suggested by Zeus Crypto, BYC, Tesla, SOL and ETH. As a basket. Thanks James always educational and on target.

Anonymous

AI has been my play this year and this decade. Crypto has taken a back seat. From a retired investor.

Anonymous

You think so? I think he's been burned in the past and doesn't see it as any different this time so he's using analysis before pumpamentals but would likely miss the bargains bit James hunts those. Everyone gets it wrong sometimes. And then if they learn they then get it right. Both are smart blokes.

Anonymous

So no $40k btc in may??

Anonymous

That's exactly what the globalist want. Replace humans with machines. They make better servants

Anonymous

You must admit Ben has done much better over the past 2 years than most in this group. He holds Bitcoin and cash and plans to start buying ETH and alts in the later part of the year. Nothing wrong with that.

Anonymous

All the people that were prognosticating Bitcoin price based on on chain data didn’t do so well in late 2021 and 2022. I was suckered into believing 100k, 200k and even 500k by end of 2021/2022. I have wisened up. Never again! 😎

Anonymous

All I can see here is that the more than 100k addresses distributed their BTC to the less 1, 1-10, 10-100 addresses.

Anonymous

Good old Benbear!

Anonymous

Will keep stacking! All Roads Lead to BTC

Anonymous

Mr James this ILLEGAL to be that AWESOME🫡🥰🙏Thank for you being that Great to our IA Community !!!!!!!!!