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I believe the Federal Reserve has realized that they have gone too far in raising interest rates. Data from China, Germany, and other countries is showing that the global economy is slowing down. Commercial real estate is also on the verge of collapse, and some banks are starting to fail.

SUMMARY

  • Federal Reserve officials are signaling that they are increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at their June meeting.
  • This strategy would give officials more time to study the economic effects of the Fed's 10 consecutive prior rate rises, as well as recent banking stress.
  • Some central bank officials have recently signaled support for continuing to raise rates, while others have said they would be open to either an increase or a skip.
  • Investors had expected a June rate increase, but the comments from Jefferson and Harker have lowered those expectations.
  • The Fed will release new projections at their June meeting, and it is possible that more officials could see a July increase as appropriate.

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Comments

Anonymous

Lol okay 😂 so maybe yes maybe no... Got it! 👍

Anonymous

Did I miss the free gummies today cuz somebody's high af writing this article. We had hot inflation last week, hot JOLTs today and much more... we're more likely to get 2 more hikes and vs. a pause at this point lest stagflation gets out of control. What am I missing?

Anonymous

Bullish for market if they don't hike then?

Anonymous

In a normal world these things are more predictable. I'm not so sure that there isn't a concerted effort to break things. One thing is certain and that is the Fed and Goverment dropped the ball years ago and continue with an Agenda not necessarily of their own making.

Anonymous

I don’t agree with the opinion that the Federal Reserve has “realized that they have gone too far” and now is going to pivot. First off, the market has been pricing in no rate hike in June for months now according to CME Fed watch, so this news of “no expected rate hike at the next meeting in June” is not new. Second, the whole point of raising rates is to destroy demand. I.E. the Fed has known all along that they will have to tank sales, profits, and stock prices and probably cause a recession to bring down inflation (if they are even able to bring inflation back to 2% at all). The Federal Reserve absolutely caused this inflation, and their tools of rising rates and contracting the money supply are subpar at best to truly control prices/inflation. In other words, if you follow Austrian Economic principles, their entire dual mandate/ objective of controlling inflation (2%) and keeping unemployment low, just by changing interest rates and the money supply, is like trying to steer a cruise ship with a single wooden oar. The Fed really doesn’t know what’s going to happen exactly to the inflation rate and unemployment and the economy as a whole as they manipulate interest rates and the money supply.

Anonymous

Just as you predicted over the last 2ish years.. patience is a virtue 🙏🏻

Anonymous

You would think…but they also blew past your prediction of 3.5% increase a long time ago sooo. At this point what’s another .25 maybe this news is what pumped mstr and Tesla back up at the end of the day

Anonymous

I think what he means is that yes, it had looked like a pause in june for some time according to the FRED website but over the last week or so that changed to an over 50% expectation of a hike in June. This news has sought to quel those recent expectation back to what we’d thought for the previous weeks.

Anonymous

Nice way to “pass” on a decision….just pretend to be super contemplative while the world burns. I’ll have to try that strategy sometime……oh wait, I’m living in the real world.

Anonymous

I completely agree. The Fed blew past his prediction of 3.5% tops, and his prediction that they would pivot last summer. I’m not sure why he is so worried about the Fed going too far. The Fed will always cave and print more money in the end, even a recession is bound to be short, and is just a charade in the end. After all, the US has the infinite money printer and they

Anonymous

Regardless they raise or not one thing is surely going to raise.

Anonymous

Could this extend the Btc ATH run into 2025 Q1 perhaps James... +/- 18 months ?

Anonymous

For the first time today in mainstream media I heard somebody talk about the issue Uncle Sam will have in paying our debt due to the interest increasing the cost exponentially.

Anonymous

About time to burn it all to the ground and start over. They will do their damnedest to make sure peoples retirement savings all but disappears into the ether and their real estate worthless. This is what I believe they mean when they talk about the great reset. I plan for this scenario and will miss out on potential gains for the next year if I'm wrong.