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Global EV Adoption Curve per ARK (Patreon)

Published:
2022-09-15 00:29:55
Imported:
2023-01

Content

That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts.

Huge market and I estimate Tesla will own at least 20% of it - with the highest margin offerings and not even including Semi and Robotaxi 

Good times thru 2027 at least. 

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Anonymous

Hi James, i joined Investor level last week - only one that had availability! And i am happy to do so! Love and respect your info and knowledge! Going back on your earlier stuff on crypto, i think all the convo with George and rob from the orginial dca was great, i dont really like the new dca as it just seems like everyone is of total opposite opinions now and is sour. To be fair, i dont see cycles in crypto changing, in markets cycles dont change a lot!? It not going to be different this time!!? But your long term analysis and content, also trading education is genius so forever grateful! Love the work! Thanks

Anonymous

Apparently nobody ran the numbers wrt the Inflation Reduction Act. The govt is giving automakers $35 per cell for BEVs. That translates to $2500-3500 per Tesla made. With a 2M production run rate that means Tesla will get roughly a $6B check from the US gov next year. That's an 8% reduction in their cost to produce their vehicles, so margins going up (or prices coming down). But wait, there's more! Vehicles could potentially get a credit as high as $7500 per vehicle if they meet all of the requirements, or up to $3750 if they only meet one of the requirements. In other words the potential payout by the USG could be MUCH higher than the $3000 average I ballparked. https://www.dlapiper.com/en/us/insights/publications/2022/08/inflation-reduction-act-seeks-to-jumpstart-electric-vehicle-market/ "Two-part clean vehicle credit The IRA establishes new clean vehicle credits, which replace the prior “plug-in electric drive vehicle” credit. Eligible battery-powered electric vehicles must meet critical mineral and battery component content and other requirements to qualify for credits of up to $7,500 per vehicle. Vehicles that meet one of the requirements, but not both, are eligible for a credit of $3,750." This is on top of the $7500 consumer tax credit for new EVs.

Anonymous
>>91682271

Great, our clown-town politicos bleeding us out toward Defacto sovereign bankruptcy as fast as they can by spending even more of the US taxpayer's money on not-ready-for-primetime tech that pushes up demand for decreasingly available cheap electricity which can't be provided by civilizationally suicidal "green energy" and trying to distribute this meager power by using a decrepit and failing infrastructure grid - sound plan this...