Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (Patreon)

The Sahm Rule, a renowned economic indicator for recessions, has seen a notable increase lately. 

Sahm Rule, its current indications, and whether the situation this time might be unique. 

This rule calculates the moving 3-month average of the U3 unemployment rate. When the current 3-month average unemployment rate exceeds the lowest rate of the past 12 months by 0.5%, it signifies the onset of a recession according to the Sahm Rule. It's crucial to refer to the "Real-Time" Sahm Rule, which employs the initial, unrevised unemployment rate, as seen in immediate reports. While the indicator is more precise with the revised unemployment rate, such data isn't available instantly.

Either way - this has been money in the past and it looks like yet another macro indicator indicates, we could hit a recession in 2024