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In this time is different news - Orange line current cycle is up higher and earlier than previous cycles. 

This chart provides a visualization of the historical drawdowns in Bitcoin's price across different "halving" cycles. Here's a breakdown:

  1. X-Axis (Duration in days): This axis represents the duration of time in days. It's a timeline that helps to visualize how long each bear market lasted.
  2. Y-Axis (Size of the drawdown): This axis shows the percentage decrease from a previous peak (or all-time high) in Bitcoin's price. A drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment. For example, a -50% drawdown indicates that the price decreased by half from its previous peak.
  3. Color-coded Lines:Green Line (Bear market of the 1st halving cycle): Represents the drawdowns during the bear market following Bitcoin's first halving event.
    Orange Line (Bear market of the 2nd halving cycle): Represents the drawdowns during the bear market after Bitcoin's second halving.
    Blue Line (Current bear market): Represents the drawdowns in the most recent or ongoing bear market.
  4. Annotations:It also notes that the past two bear markets saw Bitcoin reclaim its all-time high approximately 1000 days after the start of the bear market.

    Specific drawdown milestones are marked:Bottom at -77% after 365 days.
    Bottom at -84% after 364 days.
    Bottom at -85% after 411 days.


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Comments

Anonymous

I made my first profit on crypto. Last night while everyone was FOMO buying I sold off. Anything that runs this high this hard will revert. James teaches this. Everything returns to the mean.

Anonymous

This title says nothing imo. Every cycle is different. Spikes go up and down some faster, other slower in time. From day 500 to 700 this cycle lagged comparing to the first cycle. Although the signs and headwinds foretell very positive things, nothing is certain untill you take your profits. Like the graph from Ecoinometrics mentions in the red text, "don't mind the spikes and dumps... Look at the big picture!"

Anonymous

Actually chart suggests perhaps we/market prematurely ran due to ETF iBTC listing news. And you are still right about historical Nov 21st before prices go nuts James?

Anonymous

Can anyone tell me the start dates of the prior cycles? What happened approx day 800 on 2nd halfing cycle?

Anonymous

I know when I looked at past cycles and projecting into this one you would do very well in Bitcoin holding until End of Aug/September 2025. I have that down as top of the Bull.