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Tesla Q3 Earnings Summary Mindmap (Patreon)

Published:
2022-10-19 23:54:40
Imported:
2023-01

Content

Hi Team

I am afraid earnings were mixed. They got EPS but missed on revenue due to the delivery miss in Q3.  No real surprise.  But for those who can see past this all the missed Q3 Deliveries will be shoved into Q4 - so barring any zero covid lockdowns in China it will be great. 

The big takeaway is if Tesla, who execute at the highest level or stumbling because of things I mentioned last week like foreign exchange exposure, plus raw materials challenges and delivery delays, can you imagine what's going to happen to the other ice car manufacturers. I am still convinced that this is still the best risk reward despite this little kerfuffle in Q3.  

If Tesla falls under $200 tomorrow eg 192-195 I will buy more.   

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Comments

Anonymous

I loved the call. They are confident about the future. Also happy about continuing OpEx/Revenue decrease and auto gross margin was second record high (efter q1 22) accounting for FX and excluding reg credits. Considering the record was before production start in Berlin and Austin it's impressive that they are almost at same margin again with new factories ramping + low delivery/production rate in this q. Second half 2023 will be wild for hardware margins and if FSD develops as they believe there will be added software margins on top. Missed revenue is no big deal, the delivery wave had to stop at some point and it was gonna effect revenue negatively whenever it happened. There is a small silver lining in this; Asp in China is reason for lower revenue. If demand is low in China there will be more exports in q4. Could have positive impact. Buying opportunity. Wish I had money...

Anonymous

TSLA $55 pre pandemic high would be a possible floor.

Anonymous
>>93957804

They didn't even miss. It was the Street analysts who messed up with where they set expectations, but Tesla hit their guidance. And even though they didn't meet the Street's top line revenue estimates (because they're smoothing out deliveries), THEY STILL BEAT ON EARNINGS. That should be the real story here.

Anonymous
>>93972790

I can't remember if the first 5:1 split happened before or during the pandemic.