Tesla Prodn, Revenue and Price Projection to 2026 (Patreon)

Hi Team 

as you know I am extremely bullish on Tesla and it's also my largest holding after real estate but I just wanna share some of my latest production estimates. 

I have been updating my predictions based on revenue and margin. Note all these numbers are completely sandbagged because I do not include any FSD any insurance any energy business any solar any RoboTaxi revenue.  All of that is gravy. 

The company should be priced at LEAST $341 by my models.  My new 2026 Target sandbagged if they continue to execute is $1176.

Note I have over 5 million vehicles targeted for 2026 in total production and the FSD Take Rate is nearly 9%. Take 5M x $15K x 9% = $6.75BN of additional gravy.

More on this later... but key point of buying Tesla at $206 today and even layering in all the way down in increasing sizes (as you know I triple by later eg $270 = 100 shares, $250 x 300 shares, $231 x 900 shares and today was a synthetic long when I sold the puts and bought the calls going out to Jan 2024.

Note these prodn numbers and prices come from a myriad of sources such as Gary Black, Twitter, Tesla, History, Wall St, Troy, ARK etc.