CPI Report is Tomorrow (Patreon)

CPI expected to come in at 8.7% (down from 9.1%) and Core CPI expected to come in at 6.1% (up from 5.9%).  When you analyze all the most recent reports (crude image above) you will see they only got it right once.  Every other time it was higher than estimated. 

Real issue now is Rent and Wage inflation.  Commodities, Energy etc have come down to earth. Wage Data for unit labor cost came out today for Q2 (a backward-looking metric) showing the largest annual increase since the 1980s. Although we may see headline CPI start to come down, the potential for a wage-inflation spiral driving an accelerating Core CPI is much more of a concern.

If we hit 8.7 or lower markets will rally.   8.8 will be muted.  8.9 will cause alarm.