Home Artists Posts Import Register
Gumroad has gone full retard. While we watch it sink, check out the archive password sharing.

Content

Well NVDA popped up huge in after market after earnings.  The company was already outrageously valued - but this AI narrative is really something. 

$384 in after hours is insane... nearly 1T market cap... see below

Earnings beat 

  • EPS: $1.09, adjusted, versus $0.92 expected
  • Revenue: $7.19 billion, versus $6.52 billion expected 
  • Revenue up 14% vs last year

Nvidia is on the verge of becoming the world's first trillion-dollar chip company.

The company's stock price has been on a tear in recent months, and it is now valued at over $940 billion. This is more than Tesla, the world's most valuable automaker.

I was hedged on META, MSTR, CLSK, and NVDA. I covered META and MSTR, but I decided to hold off on covering NVDA and CLSK. I felt that there was more downside to come with the debt ceiling situation.

I also felt that NVDA was already overvalued. I had recently hedged my position by buying NVDS at $317.50.

My plan now is to wait for NVDA to mean revert. This means that I expect the stock price to eventually fall back to its fair value.

I am hedged, which means that I did not lose money on my NVDA position. However, I did leave a lot of money on the table.

I expected a face-ripping rally once the debt ceiling was resolved, but I did not expect this.

The lesson I have learned is to never short things like BTC and TSLA. I am now adding NVDA to that list.

I believe that NVDA is overvalued, and I expect the stock price to fall back to its fair value in the future. BUT if the AI narrative continues to fuel the NVDA fire - it may just hold up here at that 1T valuation. 

NOTE: This will be good for my other AI holdings TSLA META should all pump on this news tomorrow. 

260% in 224 Days


Comments

Anonymous

I got lucky to get out of my short. Pure luck.

Anonymous

If this was a twitter thread about BTC, should we all be running for the exit? 😄🙏 Retail has arrived.

Anonymous

Damn..shouldn't of bought nvds

Anonymous

Thanks for sharing. This week is Microsoft Build. A conference for developers. A very large amount of AI products are being unveiled that run in the Azure cloud that is power by nvidia. Literally announced the integration of Copilot to Windows. Microsoft is setting insane libraries and toolset for devs to use AI at pretty much all levels of the Microsoft ecosystem. From windows to some truly specific Azure offerings. So it could also be link and add to this over valuation?

Anonymous

I literally sold my HUGE bag (for me) 2 days ago... took my money and RAN... beers are out tonight, in full force.

Anonymous

Ballsy to short but the AI narrative locally will die down when earnings come in showing the lack of sales on their $2000 gaming cards and saturation is reached with the tensor chips. NVidia is great at reinventing narrative though.. better to just buy the dips spot than try to short IMO.

Anonymous

I would have been much better off had I shorted Tesla at its Peak. Don’t beat yourself up. It’s always good to take profits and hedge your positions in these times.

Anonymous

Not sure if this is the top, but I’ve seen this movie before. NVDA will definitely drop in the near future. Still not gonna short it, or synthetically short it.

Anonymous

I held my NVDA at $277, I then luckily missed the $317 top. Was hoping it would creep up a little so I could sell. Didn’t expect this though.

Anonymous

Hi James, in the community already exist a model to evaluate the fair value of our stocks? When you say "come back to the fair value" what price are you looking at?

Anonymous

Just so I am understanding, you were short NVIDIA? But hedged your short?

Anonymous

No. He is long NVIDIA with a short hedge

Anonymous

He had long calls but sold calls against the position. More long than short still.